Maureen K. Day,
USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences
Shortly after 6 P.M. in Rome, the awaited vision emerged above the Sistine Chapel: white smoke.
During the span of one and a half days, over 130 cardinals from the College of Cardinals reached a consensus on selecting the leader for approximately 1.4 billion Roman Catholics worldwide. On May 8, 2025, they decided upon Cardinal Robert Prevost as their choice. He opted for the papal name Leo XIV—marking him as the inaugural pontiff under this designation.
from the United States
.
The Conversation U.S. sought insights from Maureen Day, a scholar affiliated with the University of Southern California known for her multiple publications on modern ecclesiastical matters, regarding the state of Catholicism within the country during this critical juncture.
What changes have occurred regarding Catholic identity and practices in the U.S. when comparing today to a generation ago?
Back in 1987, during the inaugural American Catholic Laity survey, almost fifty percent of U.S. Catholics reported that religion ranked as “the top” or “one of the leading” factors in their lives. Today, this figure has dropped to just 37%.
Other individuals are departing from the Catholic Church entirely. The General Social Survey, which has been carried out biennially or annually across the U.S. since the ’70s, probes respondents about both the faith in which they were raised and their current religious affiliation. Our examination of this dataset reveals that back in 1973, merely 10% of American Catholics who were brought up within the church switched denominations, whereas an additional 7% abandoned organized religion altogether. However, these figures climbed to 18% for each category respectively by 2018.
A Pew Research Center study conducted in 2024 found that for every American who converts to Catholicism, another 8.4 leave. The only reason that Catholicism is able to maintain a relatively steady share of the U.S. population – about 20% – is due to the high percentage of immigrants and migrants who are Catholic.
My fellow authors and I deliberately selected the title “Catholicism at a Crossroads” for our book scheduled in 2025. For many years, the church has encountered numerous difficulties domestically and internationally. These challenges extend beyond membership decline to encompass matters like sexual misconduct scandals and bishops’ diminishing authority over individual choices made by lay Catholics.
In response, church leaders have mostly offered minor adjustments, such as encouraging parishes to become more family- or young adult-friendly. They have not yet made larger shifts that could substantially alter some of those trend lines.
A portion of your research centers around ‘cultural Catholics’ — individuals who identify as Catholic but only go to Mass fewer than once monthly. Could you explain how you characterize cultural Catholicism within the U.S. presently?
One major worry for Catholic authorities at present is the decline in people attending Mass regularly, since going to church every week is a crucial requirement within the Catholic tradition. The Eucharist celebrated on Sundays serves not only as a means for Catholics to partake in this sacred ritual but also as a vital opportunity for them to reinforce their beliefs and foster connections with fellow believers.
A significant factor cited by Catholic authorities explaining the decline in church attendance could be the wider movement towards secularization. While this may hold some validity, it likely does not tell the complete tale. For instance, when examining General Social Survey statistics, we find that the proportion of Protestant Christians attending religious services every week stood at 35% in 1950 and rose slightly to 40% by 2023. Conversely, among Catholics, regular participation in Sunday Mass has dropped significantly—from 63% to just 30% over those identical decades.
“Culturally affiliated Catholics” who report attending mass “only a couple of times per year” or “rarely or never at all” make up 53% of American Catholics. A significant portion of these individuals exhibit robust connections with Catholic doctrines through alternative means. Specifically, approximately 70% to 80% of culturally linked Catholics consider it either “crucial” or “fairly crucial” to their faith to assist those less fortunate, maintain veneration for Mary, and engage in regular prayers every day.
The data could be viewed optimistically or pessimistically. For example, Catholic leadership may find encouragement in knowing that 62% of culturally affiliated Catholics believe it’s crucial for upcoming generations within their families to remain Catholic; however, this figure is significantly lower compared to the 89% observed among those who regularly attend mass.
When these culturally affiliated Catholics envision future generations maintaining their Catholic identity, what exactly do they have in mind? It might just involve key rituals such as undergoing baptism, partaking in First Communion, and perhaps getting confirmed—the sacred rites that formally incorporate someone into the Church. Many Catholic authorities worry significantly about how so many cultural Catholics maintain only a tenuous connection with the church, rarely participating actively in parish activities.
What major obstacles do you anticipate for the American church during the tenure of the upcoming pope?
I contend that the primary hurdle for the American church lies in addressing the divisions and factions within its own ranks.
One side of this coin reveals significant shared values among engaged Catholics despite the ongoing diversity within their community. Our study indicates that about 20 percent of Catholics can be classified as “highly committed.” This group includes individuals who regularly participate in Sunday mass, show little inclination towards leaving the Church, and consider religious affiliation crucial. When these highly-committed Catholics encounter policy positions at odds with Catholic doctrine, they tend to diverge from mainstream stances held by their respective political parties.
For instance, Republican-leaning Catholics who are deeply involved often back the stance taken by ecclesiastical leaders regarding leniency toward family-based migration policies. Conversely, Democratic-inclined members of this same category exhibit stronger opposition to abortion compared to less devout co-partisans.
To put it differently, these highly committed Catholics are likely to experience lesser polarization and might discover shared ground with each other.
Nevertheless, there are more radical factions—such as those who challenged the validity of Pope Francis’ papacy—that are much more forceful in promoting their interpretation of Catholicism. Despite being small in numbers, members of these groups are quite outspoken. Some extremist sects have organized efforts to steer the Catholic Church away from what they perceive as a sequence of progressive changes initiated during Francis’s pontificate.
In mainstream Catholicism, disagreements often arise regarding worship styles, particularly as some younger American adults gravitate towards more conservative or traditional congregations, drawing significant media focus. Nevertheless, according to research conducted by sociologist Tim Clydesdale and religion scholar Kathleen Garces-Foley, young adult Catholics exhibit divided preferences: while certain individuals lean toward churches led by clergy upholding “traditional values,” an equal portion favor those emphasizing “inclusivity.”
What aspect of Catholicism in the U.S. would you like more individuals to comprehend?
The “missing piece” for numerous people might be the astounding variety within American Catholicism, ranging across racial backgrounds, ethnicities, political views, and religious practices. A lot of Americans often link the faith solely to certain topics like abortion and same-sex marriage, presuming that all Catholics form a single homogenous group when it comes to their demographic makeup and political leanings.
Catholics might also overlook or fail to discover that their portion of Catholicism does not encompass all of Catholicism.
Identifying and uplifting what brings together this large Catholic family, both individually and as a group, will be essential as the church progresses into the future.
The article was revised on May 8, 2025, to incorporate information about Pope Leo XIV’s election.
Maureen K. Day
, Research Associate at the Center for Religion and Civic Culture and the Institute for Advanced Catholic Studies,
USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences
This article is being republished from
The Conversation
under a Creative Commons license.